EPIPOL: An Epidemiological Patterns of Life Simulation

Sumamry:

The EPIPOL model is a flexible, social-science-based epidemiological simulation tool designed to model disease spread by integrating human behavior patterns with customizable parameters. Built on the Patterns of Life (POL) simulation, EPIPOL simulates realistic human trajectories and social interactions, offering a user-friendly interface that lets researchers adjust disease parameters, visualize outbreaks in any location, and modify simulation settings to better understand potential spread dynamics across different environments.

Methodology:

EPIPOL employs an agent-based model within the POL framework, which mimics human mobility driven by needs (e.g., social interactions, work). Users can customize parameters through a GUI or a headless version, defining infection characteristics and modifying agent behavior in response to infection. The model supports varying disease presets, simulates agents’ daily routines, and integrates spatial data for a wide array of global locations.

Results:

In simulations across urban and rural settings, EPIPOL demonstrated the influence of population density on disease spread. Results showed distinct spread patterns, with infection rates higher in urban areas when population density was accounted for. Through user-defined adjustments, EPIPOL allows exploration of various disease dynamics and their impact on different locales, providing both numerical and visual insights into epidemiological trends.

Conclusion:

EPIPOL is a versatile, user-adaptive simulation that enables precise, location-specific epidemiological modeling without deep software expertise. This tool aids researchers and epidemiologists in testing various outbreak scenarios, improving preparedness strategies. Future enhancements will incorporate varied infection durations and additional social behavior adjustments, extending EPIPOL’s capabilities in real-world disease prediction.

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